In his first weeks in office, President Trump announced new tariffs of 25% on all Mexican imports—along with similar measures for Canadian goods. This threat was quickly put on hold for 30 days, contingent on Mexico’s implementation of specific programs aimed at reducing illegal immigration and drug trafficking across the Mexico–U.S. border. If these tariffs are ultimately imposed, there’s a strong possibility that Mexico will respond with its own duties on U.S. imports. This back-and-forth has created significant uncertainty for businesses on both sides of the border, potentially affecting the rest of 2025. While the impact on traditional import/export operations is evident, it may seem less pressing for tech startups.

However, tariffs don’t just affect direct trade—they can also trigger significant currency fluctuations. For instance, new tariffs could drive a depreciation of the Mexican peso, which would raise costs for any startup importing materials or services priced in dollars—even if those imports aren’t coming directly from the United States. Startup founders should begin taking defensive measures now to avoid unexpected fallout.

For most Mexican startups exporting to the United States, the primary offering is services—an area not yet targeted by tariffs. However, any startup shipping physical goods abroad should be prepared for potential changes. And if the United States imposes tariffs, a retaliatory response from Mexico is likely, adding more complications for cross-border commerce. Below are key strategies to consider:

1. Calculate Potential Cost Impacts
   Don’t wait until tariffs are confirmed. Analyze now how different tariff rates might affect your pricing, profits, and cash flow so you can adjust budgets, hiring plans, or fundraising efforts accordingly. Keep in mind that while importers in the U.S. usually bear tariff costs, exporters often face pressure to absorb some of those costs to remain competitive—especially if tariffs aren’t uniformly applied across all countries.
2. Diversify Your Markets
   Rather than relying solely on the U.S. market, consider exploring opportunities in other regions (e.g., Europe, Asia, or Latin America). If tariffs escalate, having multiple sources of revenue can help shield your startup from severe losses in a single market.
3. Explore Ways to Reduce Imports
   If your startup relies on U.S.-sourced components or materials, look for options within Mexico or elsewhere. Reducing dependence on potentially tariff-laden goods lowers the overall risk if trade tensions intensify.
4. Prioritize Local Suppliers
   Whenever possible, shift your supply chain to local vendors. This move can help dodge tariffs and also provides more control over production schedules and quality standards. Plus, it supports the local economy.
5. Seek Alternative Overseas Partners
   Diversifying your supplier base outside both Mexico and the U.S. is a reliable hedge against sudden policy changes. Even if tariffs don’t materialize, having multiple sourcing options enhances flexibility in a fast-evolving marketplace.
6. Renegotiate Contracts With Flexibility in Mind
   Review existing supply or distribution agreements to see if there’s room to add provisions for cost adjustments or volume changes in the event of new tariffs. A bit of foresight here can protect you from being locked into unfavorable terms if costs skyrocket unexpectedly.
7. Develop Contingency Plans
   Trade disputes can evolve quickly. Outline both best-case and worst-case scenarios so you can pivot at a moment’s notice. Pin down pricing thresholds, identify alternative shipping routes, and keep backup suppliers on standby.
8. Pre-Order Inventory
   If you have clear sales forecasts and enough working capital, consider stocking up on inventory before tariffs take effect. This proactive approach could help you avoid immediate cost increases and give you time to adjust down the road.
9. Stay Informed and Engaged
   Keep up with government announcements, industry news, and trade group updates. Joining local startup or industry associations can keep you informed and help you collaborate with peers facing similar challenges.
10. Be Transparent With Investors and Stakeholders
    Tariffs can cause unpredictable swings in costs and revenue. Keeping your board, investors, and customers updated on potential impacts—and how you plan to address them—builds trust and credibility.

Ultimately, the prospect of tariffs adds a fresh layer of uncertainty for startups—which already grapple with plenty of unknowns. But this unpredictability can also push companies to become more adaptive and resilient. By evaluating cost structures, diversifying markets, and planning for various scenarios, you’ll be better positioned to weather any tariff-related turbulence. While it’s everyone’s hope that these measures remain precautionary, being prepared is always the smarter move in an unpredictable global environment.