Only 50% of startups make it from Seed to Series A, based on Carta’s data from 12,388 startups (2018–2023). The numbers show a clear trend: most startups that succeed in raising a Series A do so within 4 years. After that, graduation rates plateau.

The data also reveals a notable market shift: success rates declined following the market adjustment in Q3 2021, and it’s still uncertain when—or if—those earlier figures will return.

Key takeaways:

• Year 1: Low graduation rates are expected—most startups simply haven’t had enough time to show traction.
• Years 2-3: The critical window when most Series A raises occur.
• Year 4: If it hasn’t happened by now, the odds are slim.

For founders, this underscores the importance of building early momentum. For investors, it highlights the need to provide meaningful support during these pivotal years.

What’s your experience? Are these trends playing out in your portfolio or startup journey?