Recently I was asked the following question in a chat group of former colleagues. I wrote the response below and thought I would share it with you.

Question: “Diego, based on what you’ve studied, what are the 3 things that need to be done to halt/stop/reverse global warming? The question is simple, but there’s so much noise on the topic that it seems difficult to discern the ‘indicated actions’.”

Response: The issue at hand is highly complex, largely due to the fact that the global economy operates predominantly on fossil fuels. The first key step to curb global warming is the accelerated decarbonization of the economy by reducing and eventually eliminating fossil fuel usage, namely coal, oil, and natural gas. This necessitates the development of nuclear energy and renewable energy sources, as well as the electrification of the economy. An effective energy transition should also entail the prohibition of developing new oil reserves. If we were to use only the reserves confirmed today, we would exhaust all remaining CO₂ emissions within the 1.5°C global warming scenario budget.

Secondly, it’s crucial to reduce emissions in the agricultural sector, where beef protein production is the main offender. This is challenging as it essentially requires a change in consumer behavior – eating less meat, a concept that many people consider almost taboo. But it’s not impossible. Consider that just one vegetarian day per week can reduce meat consumption by 15%.

Worth noticing is that carbon capture technologies have been proposed as an alternative to allow us to continue emitting while compensating by capturing carbon afterward. However, there currently exists no technology capable of capturing carbon from the atmosphere at a reasonable cost and that can scale, nor are there expectations of a viable solution in the near future.

An often overlooked aspect of the issue is that greenhouse gases operate on a principle of balances, not flows. What we have emitted so far remains in the atmosphere and continues to cause warming for a long period of time. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 would still result in an estimated global warming of at least 1.5°C. Given that we’re not currently on a reduction trajectory, but emissions continue to rise annually, we’re likely facing a minimum 2°C global temperature increase before 2050. Under no scenario can this increase be reversed; all efforts are to limit any further temperature rise.

So how bad is this, really? Today, the planet’s temperature has risen by around 1°C compared to pre-industrial levels. This increase is already causing dramatic changes in weather patterns, including droughts, floods, forest fires, heatwaves, ocean warming, and crop impacts, that we are seeing on the news every day. The prospects for a 2°C rise aren’t promising.

It’s important to note that many industries and countries oppose these necessary changes, including the oil industry and oil-rich countries, coal, protein production, maritime transport, and even others heavily dependent on fossil fuels like aviation and cruise lines, along with many more indirectly. Some of these groups have systematically opposed the introduction of policies forcing energy transition, even spreading misinformation under the guise of scientific controversy over global warming—a controversy that doesn’t actually exist. The science behind the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the atmosphere has been known for over a hundred years and has been proven to the highest standards for the last 20-30 years.

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requires significant sacrifices and investments. Therefore, it is crucial that individuals and organizations are convinced of the necessity to take these steps.

That said, the most significant contribution we can make as individuals is to vote for governments that are willing to implement energy transition policies. We can also make an impact by individually reducing our consumption of fossil fuels and animal protein and directing our consumer dollars toward companies with sustainable policies. However, without public policy backing these efforts, individual contributions can only make a limited impact.

Let’s remember that we don’t have to be passive observers in the face of this global crisis. We all have the power to catalyze change, and by acting collectively, we can significantly affect the trajectory of global warming.

If you want to learn more about the science of climate change, you can read this excellent Primer from MIT.