I know that any predictions for 2026 will probably be wrong, but I am willing to bet on two specific trends.

1. Volatility and opportunity

I expect 2026 to be a year of above-average market volatility. It will likely mirror what we experienced in 2025. However, this creates massive opportunities in the startup and venture ecosystem. Tremendous innovation is happening right now, but in a market with restricted liquidity. Constraints often breed the best creativity, and I think we are about to see the proof of that.

2. The acceleration of AI-native products

AI development will continue to accelerate. This will happen in foundational models and in specific, AI-native products.

• Foundational models will generate performance far beyond what we have seen so far. They will push into the upper range of human capability.

• Specialized products will finally have their moment. While the adoption of general interfaces like ChatGPT and Gemini has been fast, the uptake of specialized tools has lagged. I expect that to change rapidly in 2026. We will see a wave of products that don’t just chat, but act. They will solve complex problems just as expert humans do.

Looking Back

Personally, this year has been very demanding but also incredibly rewarding. I am confident the rewarding part will continue in 2026. I just hope the “demanding” part dials down a little bit.

I am grateful for you, my readers, for following this blog over the years. As always, your feedback is welcome.

Happy New Year to you and your families. Enjoy the last sunset of 2025 from the Mexican Pacific coast.